Thinking a bit about YouTube channels and the inevitable AI updates.
Is “channel” really the best name for YT content creators that put out hour long vinyl mixes? Or the focus is multi-hour rain walking videos from Tokyo? Or those chores as comfort content, the viewer follows along as they silently get their work done. Channel only seems right if they don’t ever change.
I’ve noticed a shift in tone recently when the leading AI labs speak about the near future developments of their products. They’re no longer ominously saying that AGI is imminent and we’ve got to do something. Now, if it’s brought up at all, it’s assumed, and it’s not threatening or scary. I wonder why that is. A couple of guesses, and I want to be straight with you, these are just guesses. One option is that it’s not happening, AGI or *SI isn’t coming. This one is probably it; we don’t have yet, so nothing is sure. Another option: the labs aren’t worried about scaring the regulators into regulating for whatever reason. Lots of possible reasons there, see the first one, or different administration different attitude, or competitive nations, or… I won’t speculate further, I don’t know enough.
A last option (for now) is that these labs, they think it’s not right right around the corner. It’s going to be an incremental approach, like many things it won’t happen overnight. So when it comes up, they’re talking like it’s a sure thing. We already have some pretty wild tools that we really haven’t figured out how to make the most gains from. The not AGI stuff is already going to rock our world, so it’s just a matter of time. Will we even really notice when the real deal lands? I mean, of course we will, but by then there might be so much change in the rearview mirror that our little monkey brains won’t truly tell the difference. One degree of exponential for another.
Sounds like hype to me. Did I even say anything in that last paragraph? I did not, and neither are they. Call me when the self-flying cars are in the mail.
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Tags that connect: [[AGI]] Week Notes No. 46: Learning Currents.
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